The NBA Coach of the Year award often goes to the someone who overachieves, manages the roster well and has a compelling regular-season story.
Betting markets point to a tight race between Darko Rajakovic, Nick Nurse, Will Hardy and Erik Spoelstra as the favorites to win the trophy.
The four coaches have the strongest combination of roster context, expectations gap and playoff upside heading into the new season. Let’s dive into each one’s chances.
First is Rajakovic of the Toronto Raptors. His defensive-minded approach worked last season, but with the franchise’s re-acquisition of Kawhi Leonard, they are only bound to get better.
Their well-balanced roster made up of a young core and veterans, led by Leonard and Scottie Barnes, will likely give other teams problems, especially on the defensive end. Other key players include RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Jakob Poeltl and Trayce Jackson-Davis.
Toronto secured a postseason berth as the fifth seed with a 46-36 regular-season record. They pushed the Eastern Conference finalist Cleveland Cavaliers to a Game 7 in the first round.
With “The Klaw” as their main man on offense, many expect the Raptors to finish at least in the top four in the East and potentially make a run to the Conference Finals if the roster is fully healthy.
Next is the Philadelphia 76ers’ Nurse. He’s a favorite to win the award because of a loaded, revamped lineup that now features four All-Stars.
Their core of Joel Embiid, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James and Tyrese Maxey will give Nurse plenty of leverage to experiment with lineups and sets throughout the regular season.
The one-time NBA champion has a solid track record of maximizing talent. The team’s projected win total is 52-56 and could be the top seed in the East. Nurse and the Sixers could also go all the way to the NBA Finals if health permits and their cohesiveness and chemistry hold up as the season progresses.
Third is the Utah Jazz’s Hardy, who can snag the award if they turn their season around. They selected Darryn Peterson with the second overall pick in this year’s NBA Draft to pair with their big-man duo of Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. and rising star Keyonte George.
They finished last season with the worst record in the West, tied with the Sacramento Kings at 22-60. However, Peterson’s arrival and a potential revenge season from their stars could help them overperform.
Although expectations are still low-to-mid, winning 15-20 more games this season feels realistic, especially if Hardy can maximize the youth and athleticism of his team. A play-in tournament spot or even a first-round playoff appearance could be their biggest upside.
Last on this list is Miami Heat’s Spoelstra, who, for the first time in years, will have a bona fide superstar on his roster.
Even without Giannis Antetokounmpo, Spoelstra has been a proven winner and consistently exceeds roster talent. Imagine the different plays and sets he can create with the “Greek Freak” at his disposal. A 50-win season is realistic for them, and they could also make a deep run in the East when fully healthy and when on-court chemistry clicks.
Regardless of who will win the Coach of the Year award next season, it’s going to be an exciting battle of minds and tactics from these sideline masterminds.
